It was 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him over missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were an indicator or a cause for the team's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response was far more favourable. As Rogers curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have piled up.
As per the data, twice all season has the side had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened when facing United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, bent right inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival the club will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed the team would occupy third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as a crucial England player.
This remarkable period is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and should be relished.
